* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 08/03/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 31 38 43 48 50 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 23 24 29 35 40 45 42 50 45 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 20 23 28 32 36 40 40 47 45 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 6 6 7 1 11 9 12 8 5 15 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 -3 3 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 224 228 258 231 158 104 119 127 116 153 159 223 248 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 147 148 151 151 151 152 153 154 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 130 129 128 128 132 130 129 128 128 128 128 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 9 11 9 11 700-500 MB RH 63 65 63 62 63 60 62 56 57 51 51 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -50 -69 -78 -62 -81 -64 -69 -22 -43 -9 -23 1 200 MB DIV 13 29 3 -20 -4 -1 22 8 21 -8 3 -11 1 700-850 TADV 4 0 -1 2 3 -1 2 -5 0 -3 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 149 83 27 -41 -95 9 141 138 99 -4 4 16 12 LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.0 27.8 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 79.4 79.9 80.6 81.2 82.9 84.8 86.5 88.2 89.4 90.5 91.3 92.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 106 85 69 28 8 23 28 30 38 22 52 36 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 36. 38. 41. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 08/03/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 08/03/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)