* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEST AL912012 07/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 21 20 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 25 29 32 34 35 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 16 11 7 5 8 6 8 14 23 33 51 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 -3 0 0 6 12 12 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 6 34 65 86 118 194 229 292 246 247 244 254 N/A SST (C) 23.9 22.7 20.5 21.7 22.2 20.6 20.2 18.7 16.1 14.5 12.8 11.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 95 85 90 91 83 81 78 75 74 73 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 86 78 81 81 74 72 72 71 71 70 69 N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -54.6 -54.1 -53.3 -53.1 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 55 56 56 55 52 47 49 57 64 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 8 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 -9 -25 -48 -73 -87 -103 -31 -35 -66 -18 33 N/A 200 MB DIV 13 12 -16 -6 4 -15 0 10 33 24 56 30 N/A 700-850 TADV 51 38 34 49 33 11 -4 -17 -45 -29 14 0 N/A LAND (KM) 688 615 630 750 919 1238 1474 1637 1300 713 258 111 N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.6 41.2 41.8 42.2 42.6 42.8 43.2 44.8 47.9 51.8 55.8 59.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.2 52.2 49.1 46.1 43.0 38.4 35.0 31.9 27.3 20.7 12.5 2.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 24 23 23 20 15 13 18 26 30 31 30 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 5. 8. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -24. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 TEST 07/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 TEST 07/18/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)