* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 35 36 36 34 31 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 34 35 36 36 34 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 22 21 21 22 25 30 36 41 43 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 35 35 32 29 23 21 19 10 21 19 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 0 4 3 0 1 0 -1 -6 -2 0 6 SHEAR DIR 286 287 286 284 276 265 267 266 336 24 41 2 6 SST (C) 21.3 20.9 20.5 20.0 19.5 18.5 17.6 16.7 15.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 86 86 84 82 80 76 74 71 68 66 69 71 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 80 78 76 74 71 69 66 63 62 65 67 69 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.1 -57.1 -56.9 -57.3 -58.0 -59.2 -59.9 -60.9 -61.6 -62.5 -62.4 -61.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 41 43 49 56 63 69 64 53 46 47 42 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 97 81 66 63 39 5 -45 -76 -48 -95 -109 -82 200 MB DIV -9 -2 -15 1 28 21 10 -9 -34 -58 -36 -47 -25 700-850 TADV -2 0 10 14 17 15 9 8 2 -1 4 -14 -56 LAND (KM) 1930 1922 1923 1858 1809 1636 1438 1246 1112 1073 1213 1512 1858 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.8 30.2 31.3 32.4 35.1 37.8 40.2 41.7 42.6 42.7 41.2 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 48.7 46.4 44.7 43.0 41.1 40.4 40.5 41.0 40.8 38.8 35.8 33.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 19 18 17 14 13 10 6 5 10 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 16 CX,CY: 16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 29. 35. 42. 46. 48. 51. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 9. 6. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/20/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)