* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/19/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 30 32 34 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 30 32 34 35 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 26 26 27 30 35 42 48 51 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 40 42 39 40 38 27 25 22 19 17 9 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 0 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 314 304 292 288 287 275 267 250 249 245 265 326 337 SST (C) 20.1 20.4 20.9 20.4 20.1 19.1 18.6 18.2 17.8 17.3 16.4 15.2 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 79 80 84 84 82 77 75 72 71 70 68 66 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 73 77 79 76 71 69 66 65 64 63 62 61 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.2 -57.5 -57.5 -57.7 -57.6 -57.0 -57.1 -57.8 -57.3 -58.0 -59.4 -60.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 39 34 32 36 47 57 62 57 50 45 44 41 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 138 135 117 120 97 87 72 63 18 0 -18 -55 -73 200 MB DIV -32 -9 3 15 2 24 18 6 9 3 -40 -5 -21 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 2 -2 2 -1 2 2 2 1 11 LAND (KM) 1582 1681 1712 1790 1744 1547 1399 1265 1150 1034 933 836 727 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 30.6 30.0 30.6 31.2 33.4 35.2 36.7 37.7 38.5 39.1 39.7 40.5 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 55.7 54.7 52.3 49.9 47.7 46.3 45.8 46.2 47.1 48.2 49.3 50.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 15 22 17 13 9 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 25. 30. 34. 37. 37. 39. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 2. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/19/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/19/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/19/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)