* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/18/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 35 35 33 29 25 25 26 28 28 27 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 35 35 33 29 25 25 26 28 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 34 37 42 47 51 52 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 36 40 40 41 40 36 34 24 21 18 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -1 3 4 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 343 336 332 321 305 289 290 287 285 277 280 286 296 SST (C) 19.5 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.4 20.9 19.9 19.0 18.6 18.1 17.6 16.9 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 77 79 81 84 85 84 80 77 75 73 71 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 72 74 77 78 77 74 71 69 67 65 63 62 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -57.0 -57.2 -57.6 -57.4 -57.8 -57.9 -57.7 -58.0 -58.1 -58.7 -59.7 -61.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 41 37 38 39 44 54 61 67 65 61 53 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 16 14 13 11 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 129 123 134 133 127 115 92 85 64 43 33 14 -23 200 MB DIV -28 -35 -52 -16 -6 11 6 -8 24 3 3 -8 -25 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 1 1 0 4 7 -2 3 -4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1409 1515 1531 1567 1614 1870 1725 1563 1424 1282 1160 1059 1003 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 31.1 30.2 29.7 29.2 29.9 31.5 33.4 35.2 37.0 38.4 39.4 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.0 58.5 58.0 56.6 55.2 51.7 49.0 47.1 45.6 44.7 44.5 44.7 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):170/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -12. -17. -19. -19. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 24. 29. 34. 38. 38. 41. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/18/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -27.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/18/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/18/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)