* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 33 31 27 24 22 24 25 26 26 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 33 31 27 24 22 24 25 26 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 33 33 33 33 33 35 39 44 48 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 35 36 42 39 42 40 31 32 23 20 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 5 0 -1 2 0 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 353 343 336 331 320 300 290 291 292 284 295 292 304 SST (C) 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.0 21.3 20.9 20.4 19.6 18.2 17.6 17.0 16.5 16.2 POT. INT. (KT) 79 80 82 83 84 83 81 79 75 73 71 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 72 73 74 76 77 76 75 73 70 68 67 65 64 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.6 -57.0 -57.2 -57.6 -57.7 -57.6 -57.9 -57.9 -58.5 -59.3 -60.1 -61.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 39 39 42 45 54 62 67 66 63 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 17 16 14 11 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 133 129 126 135 134 123 103 88 64 46 15 -3 -23 200 MB DIV -8 -29 -33 -45 -7 27 -1 5 13 18 6 7 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 1 1 5 1 9 3 3 3 1 LAND (KM) 1320 1429 1537 1572 1598 1808 1770 1645 1519 1391 1272 1174 1131 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 31.8 30.8 30.3 29.7 29.9 30.9 32.4 34.2 36.2 38.2 39.8 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 59.2 58.9 58.6 57.4 56.1 53.2 50.5 48.1 45.8 44.0 42.7 42.1 41.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -12. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 24. 29. 34. 37. 39. 41. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/18/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/18/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)