* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912012 04/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 32 29 24 22 20 22 25 27 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 32 29 24 22 20 22 25 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 34 35 35 35 36 38 40 43 46 50 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 36 39 42 38 34 32 35 37 28 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 4 -2 0 0 0 2 0 4 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 3 352 345 335 333 303 294 293 280 265 262 262 270 SST (C) 19.5 20.0 20.5 20.8 21.2 21.2 21.1 20.8 20.7 20.2 18.8 17.4 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 78 80 80 81 83 83 82 81 81 81 78 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 72 73 73 74 75 75 74 73 74 74 74 74 72 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.1 -56.3 -56.7 -56.9 -57.6 -57.7 -57.2 -56.6 -57.2 -57.9 -59.6 -62.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 46 45 43 40 37 36 35 35 33 44 52 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 18 16 15 12 10 8 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 125 123 127 124 128 123 109 72 61 49 54 27 -49 200 MB DIV -31 -12 -12 -40 -58 -9 -8 2 -24 -2 3 18 -10 700-850 TADV -7 -3 1 1 4 4 2 3 1 2 3 -4 -18 LAND (KM) 1227 1326 1430 1530 1522 1621 1743 1857 1836 1762 1689 1422 1158 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 9 8 7 9 13 18 25 28 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -16. -22. -24. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. 37. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -13. -15. -13. -10. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912012 INVEST 04/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912012 INVEST 04/18/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912012 INVEST 04/18/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)