* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/16/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 125 123 120 116 107 100 84 60 38 25 20 15 V (KT) LAND 125 125 123 120 116 107 100 84 60 38 25 20 15 V (KT) LGE mod 125 123 118 111 105 94 86 69 51 41 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 13 10 17 21 37 53 57 45 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 1 0 2 11 14 10 3 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 247 222 226 222 227 197 218 244 279 303 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.1 16.1 10.5 10.8 12.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 144 138 134 125 121 78 73 73 74 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 128 123 119 114 112 75 71 71 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 43 40 38 34 39 43 40 36 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 33 34 37 39 34 29 28 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 11 20 29 34 2 -10 -14 -26 -24 29 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 52 49 85 93 66 128 68 35 -18 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 16 19 23 24 39 48 75 26 53 53 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 781 913 1044 1062 1054 1000 648 283 528 1318 850 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.7 28.8 30.1 31.3 34.4 39.1 44.2 48.8 51.6 52.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 67.8 67.3 66.5 65.7 63.7 60.4 54.4 45.8 35.1 22.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 14 16 22 30 36 37 37 38 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 44 24 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -20. -32. -49. -65. -77. -84. -85. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 2. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -9. -18. -25. -41. -65. -87.-100.-105.-110. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/16/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 35( 60) 31( 72) 27( 80) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 77 17( 81) 1( 81) 0( 81) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED