* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/15/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 110 111 111 111 112 110 107 102 89 69 53 38 V (KT) LAND 110 110 111 111 111 112 110 107 102 89 68 51 36 V (KT) LGE mod 110 109 107 104 102 100 96 89 82 64 51 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 12 13 9 12 15 23 37 44 57 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 -1 2 1 1 8 12 9 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 218 277 274 267 275 270 256 225 188 221 241 268 287 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.6 26.6 26.0 13.7 9.5 9.1 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 152 150 150 145 134 124 120 75 72 72 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 135 131 133 131 122 114 111 73 71 71 73 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 9 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 54 56 47 39 31 36 47 52 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 26 27 30 32 34 36 36 28 22 17 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -12 -24 -27 -22 12 59 33 -4 -1 67 57 52 200 MB DIV 49 20 17 60 80 86 64 80 101 62 13 -33 -15 700-850 TADV 14 13 8 8 9 27 53 41 31 65 38 13 24 LAND (KM) 450 508 579 655 730 998 1015 926 522 154 437 1251 855 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.0 24.8 25.5 26.2 28.5 31.4 35.1 40.0 45.5 51.2 53.8 54.1 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.2 68.7 68.7 68.8 67.9 66.1 63.9 61.3 56.1 48.1 36.9 23.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 10 14 19 24 30 36 37 38 41 HEAT CONTENT 59 54 53 39 33 44 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -27. -36. -47. -54. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 2. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -8. -21. -41. -57. -72. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/15/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 29( 50) 29( 64) 30( 75) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 8 18( 25) 23( 42) 20( 54) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED