* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/14/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 87 91 93 100 104 106 108 106 101 95 92 V (KT) LAND 75 82 87 91 93 100 104 106 108 106 101 95 92 V (KT) LGE mod 75 84 90 93 95 95 95 95 95 93 87 79 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 9 9 13 3 8 10 8 12 22 31 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 1 -1 2 0 0 4 2 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 190 190 170 145 170 246 302 285 235 227 224 222 228 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.5 26.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 152 150 151 152 150 147 142 132 124 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 146 143 140 137 134 130 128 126 116 108 100 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 10 10 11 9 9 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 52 51 52 54 60 55 47 36 32 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 21 22 25 26 28 31 34 35 37 41 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 7 1 0 2 -6 -3 18 29 62 54 86 200 MB DIV 36 33 43 22 31 44 53 73 95 71 64 53 26 700-850 TADV 11 15 9 9 9 6 12 14 18 25 11 4 2 LAND (KM) 274 202 190 248 344 455 576 714 842 1063 1065 1043 856 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.6 23.2 24.7 26.0 27.1 28.9 31.6 34.0 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.1 64.0 64.8 65.5 66.3 67.6 68.4 68.5 68.1 67.0 65.4 63.6 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 7 6 8 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 75 76 74 74 75 78 67 61 53 33 24 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. 14. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 18. 25. 29. 31. 33. 31. 26. 20. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/14/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 14( 26) 22( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 3( 4) 6( 10) 5( 14) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)