* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL082014 10/13/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 60 64 68 77 85 90 94 97 98 96 95 V (KT) LAND 50 55 60 64 68 77 85 90 94 97 98 96 95 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 63 67 72 77 81 84 86 85 84 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 6 9 12 6 8 9 9 12 12 13 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 1 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 271 257 212 202 205 172 296 311 292 261 239 229 230 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 156 155 151 149 150 151 150 149 144 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 148 148 149 147 138 133 133 132 130 130 126 118 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 49 48 48 49 51 50 54 57 61 60 54 48 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 18 19 20 23 25 27 30 33 36 38 42 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -4 9 1 0 -2 -4 -6 0 -4 22 69 103 200 MB DIV 11 33 35 34 44 58 37 53 55 67 74 38 18 700-850 TADV 1 3 6 10 11 7 10 12 11 13 10 7 1 LAND (KM) 467 358 249 156 136 266 353 435 543 669 807 999 1210 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.9 22.0 23.2 24.3 25.4 26.5 28.0 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.5 63.4 64.3 65.1 66.4 67.4 68.0 68.1 67.8 67.1 66.1 64.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 8 7 6 6 6 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 75 76 73 76 76 67 59 46 38 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 17. 17. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 27. 35. 40. 44. 47. 48. 46. 45. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082014 GONZALO 10/13/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 6( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 5( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)