* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL072014 10/13/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 49 46 41 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 49 46 41 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 50 47 44 39 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 39 44 44 50 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 8 9 9 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 234 244 247 252 249 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.7 26.2 25.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 116 113 117 121 115 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 107 104 109 112 102 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 33 29 27 26 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 25 22 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 7 1 3 -6 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 41 14 27 -8 -13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -36 -11 -19 -21 -30 -24 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1190 1261 1302 1344 1430 1782 2032 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.4 34.9 34.8 34.6 33.2 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.4 56.6 53.9 50.6 47.3 41.8 39.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 23 25 27 26 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 21 CX,CY: 21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -14. -25. -37. -45. -51. -55. -58. -58. -58. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072014 FAY 10/13/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072014 FAY 10/13/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072014 FAY 10/13/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)