* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 08/31/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 40 48 54 59 62 68 71 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 25 29 36 43 50 45 33 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 24 25 26 33 38 44 43 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 16 13 9 14 14 13 12 13 8 10 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 323 356 22 345 334 12 354 19 7 21 345 335 340 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 157 157 158 161 163 159 161 167 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 149 148 147 146 148 149 146 148 154 160 167 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 10 10 9 11 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 76 75 76 74 73 75 76 78 79 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 27 30 15 18 18 11 41 36 62 47 47 200 MB DIV 37 36 62 56 51 44 29 25 28 32 49 37 31 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 0 -8 -3 -12 -4 -12 -2 -6 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 99 5 -97 -77 9 126 188 104 -28 -155 -321 -279 -104 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.7 20.2 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 88.1 89.1 90.1 91.1 92.8 94.3 95.8 97.4 99.1 100.9 102.7 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 28 0 27 21 28 48 42 63 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 15. 23. 29. 34. 37. 43. 46. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 08/31/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 08/31/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 08/31/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)