* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GABRIELLE AL072013 09/05/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 57 62 65 68 67 66 63 62 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 57 62 65 68 67 66 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 44 48 52 58 63 65 67 68 69 69 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 4 4 14 16 17 20 21 28 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 3 3 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 175 255 294 308 233 264 243 268 238 255 228 237 217 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 149 147 145 144 145 148 153 159 160 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 140 137 134 132 128 127 129 135 142 146 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 59 59 59 60 60 62 64 65 65 62 57 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 54 58 55 43 50 36 46 27 36 11 13 200 MB DIV 55 51 44 61 53 28 52 53 53 45 63 48 61 700-850 TADV 3 6 3 0 -1 1 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 142 66 23 52 49 98 210 321 417 543 710 975 1308 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.0 20.1 21.4 22.5 23.4 24.5 25.9 27.8 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.9 67.4 67.8 68.2 68.8 69.0 69.1 69.2 68.9 68.2 66.2 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 11 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 20 33 26 50 53 46 48 47 42 40 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 32. 31. 28. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072013 GABRIELLE 09/05/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)