* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 51 55 55 55 53 51 51 53 57 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 51 55 55 55 53 51 51 53 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 49 56 61 63 63 63 65 69 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 5 9 9 9 15 12 9 3 1 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 0 3 6 1 4 0 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 1 28 40 73 91 169 166 179 188 198 164 148 82 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 121 117 115 113 115 116 119 122 125 127 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 120 117 112 110 107 108 108 112 116 118 119 120 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 70 69 67 60 54 47 45 37 36 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 19 18 18 17 15 12 10 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 49 50 48 43 35 27 42 48 48 42 31 33 11 200 MB DIV 57 38 46 27 37 -1 -10 -11 -14 -18 -10 -11 3 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -12 -8 -6 -3 -5 0 0 -2 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 1021 1165 1310 1439 1569 1822 2070 2046 1927 1771 1604 1509 1444 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.0 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.7 17.8 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.4 29.7 30.9 32.1 34.4 36.7 38.7 40.7 43.0 45.5 47.7 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 8 9 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 20. 20. 18. 16. 16. 18. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/15/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/15/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED