* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 46 49 54 60 65 67 65 63 63 51 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 46 49 54 60 65 67 65 63 63 51 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 48 51 54 55 52 46 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 18 18 16 16 24 41 51 57 59 59 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 1 -2 -2 -4 -1 2 -3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 340 338 340 338 329 294 259 251 238 237 238 247 262 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.1 26.7 25.3 21.4 15.9 12.6 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 147 148 146 138 129 125 112 88 74 71 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 137 137 133 124 115 111 98 79 70 68 70 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.6 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 2 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 58 59 62 63 63 60 63 66 65 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 15 18 19 24 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR -86 -87 -92 -71 -46 -43 -17 11 66 95 111 76 94 200 MB DIV 41 67 65 47 72 46 57 70 132 90 90 109 26 700-850 TADV 4 0 5 17 16 19 20 1 14 20 39 3 -17 LAND (KM) 311 417 529 618 650 484 541 557 438 409 256 531 1013 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 24.1 25.5 27.2 28.8 32.0 34.9 37.8 40.6 42.9 44.5 46.3 48.2 LONG(DEG W) 72.7 73.3 73.9 73.9 73.8 72.5 70.0 66.3 61.9 57.1 52.1 46.1 39.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 17 19 21 22 20 21 24 25 HEAT CONTENT 52 52 71 33 26 8 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 16 CX,CY: -8/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -11. -17. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 20. 25. 27. 25. 23. 23. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED