* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERTHA AL032014 08/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 46 49 56 62 69 71 70 67 63 48 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 46 49 56 62 69 71 70 67 63 48 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 43 45 49 54 59 61 61 56 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 20 16 12 13 10 14 23 38 52 56 65 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -5 -6 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 0 1 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 312 325 338 336 332 324 281 241 245 243 250 267 274 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.1 26.9 26.0 23.2 17.2 12.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 148 149 144 139 128 127 118 97 75 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 138 139 138 131 124 114 113 104 86 71 67 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 7 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 57 60 59 63 63 67 66 71 70 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 13 15 17 18 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -72 -87 -85 -89 -38 -51 -13 2 44 54 37 -20 200 MB DIV 9 10 35 59 54 75 57 48 61 70 58 61 30 700-850 TADV 0 6 7 5 8 23 19 28 4 25 33 54 48 LAND (KM) 49 177 296 396 517 619 467 488 578 490 468 304 444 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.4 22.6 24.1 25.5 28.7 31.7 34.5 37.2 39.7 42.0 44.0 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.5 71.7 72.9 73.6 74.3 74.1 73.1 70.7 67.0 62.5 57.4 52.4 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 16 16 19 21 22 22 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 54 39 50 53 67 28 8 12 8 11 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 18 CX,CY: -13/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -6. -11. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 29. 31. 30. 27. 23. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032014 BERTHA 08/03/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)