* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 43 46 51 55 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 43 46 46 50 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 34 34 36 36 40 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 21 26 27 28 29 20 27 17 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -8 -5 -7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 309 301 286 285 289 287 304 294 295 272 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.4 29.1 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 132 135 140 146 145 142 144 154 158 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 135 138 145 150 147 141 140 147 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 11 13 13 15 14 16 14 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 37 38 39 40 43 43 44 45 46 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -1 -10 -16 -19 1 -10 3 -2 -12 -50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 1 -4 -6 0 -1 -12 -21 -10 -6 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -7 -7 -5 3 5 10 8 7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 838 680 553 471 483 266 231 135 15 61 242 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.0 55.9 57.7 59.7 61.7 65.8 69.6 73.0 76.1 78.6 80.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 19 19 20 19 18 16 14 12 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 26 30 29 45 43 51 51 39 86 77 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 13. 16. 21. 25. 29. 30. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/23/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)