* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012014 07/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 84 87 89 89 87 81 61 46 38 24 18 V (KT) LAND 75 80 84 87 89 89 87 68 43 34 26 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 80 84 85 84 77 62 48 37 36 37 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 12 9 11 29 42 42 39 31 20 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 0 1 2 0 5 4 2 11 9 SHEAR DIR 336 295 298 279 230 207 213 183 177 179 189 233 235 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 26.7 25.5 22.7 13.6 11.7 8.5 4.0 6.4 6.2 5.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 133 123 113 95 71 69 67 66 65 64 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 116 108 100 86 69 67 66 N/A 64 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -51.7 -51.4 -50.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -49.0 -48.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 12 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 50 52 52 46 45 48 53 63 71 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 25 26 27 30 37 41 33 26 25 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 5 10 39 55 133 118 117 147 110 165 160 200 MB DIV 57 40 44 43 51 64 47 34 60 28 42 43 -5 700-850 TADV -4 3 6 -11 -21 -42 -46 -50 -32 -39 -5 64 40 LAND (KM) 153 135 90 50 138 254 79 0 -16 112 499 755 746 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.8 33.7 35.0 36.2 39.3 42.8 46.1 49.2 52.5 55.9 58.8 61.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.7 77.9 77.0 75.7 74.3 70.0 65.3 61.5 57.9 54.1 49.7 48.9 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 17 20 24 23 20 20 21 18 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 29 20 17 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -15. -23. -29. -32. -36. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 13. 17. 9. 1. 0. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 6. -14. -29. -37. -51. -57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012014 ARTHUR 07/03/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 11( 23) 11( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED