* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912014 06/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 32 37 41 45 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 32 37 41 45 48 49 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 33 37 41 45 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 13 13 12 15 15 16 15 18 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 -5 -1 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 337 340 318 332 338 346 26 10 11 22 9 5 348 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 123 123 122 123 123 122 121 121 123 125 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 102 102 101 101 102 101 101 101 103 105 99 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 8 8 10 9 13 11 14 11 12 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 54 57 57 58 55 59 63 64 65 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -50 -49 -51 -35 -24 -48 -41 -43 -27 -34 -15 -7 200 MB DIV -8 -16 -20 -9 -11 3 -3 21 -7 30 8 37 29 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 -1 3 -3 5 -7 LAND (KM) 326 307 292 278 265 235 233 246 267 249 200 150 120 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 29.1 29.6 30.2 31.0 31.8 33.0 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.8 77.9 78.2 78.3 78.4 78.5 78.3 77.9 76.9 75.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 1 3 3 4 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 24 24 24 25 24 24 27 36 40 23 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912014 INVEST 06/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912014 INVEST 06/29/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED