* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ALBERTO AL012012 05/20/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 36 36 36 35 33 30 26 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 36 36 36 35 33 30 26 25 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 36 36 37 38 39 38 37 36 36 39 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 26 33 32 37 34 38 42 61 56 49 28 14 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -6 -4 -1 -5 -10 -13 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 253 251 260 264 255 243 236 238 235 240 244 246 125 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.7 23.9 22.7 22.0 18.7 14.4 12.4 11.4 POT. INT. (KT) 97 96 95 95 97 102 98 91 87 75 67 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 79 80 83 88 86 81 77 69 64 64 63 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -55.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -56.1 -56.3 -56.3 -56.3 -57.3 -57.5 -58.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 4 5 3 3 7 4 5 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 45 43 43 43 48 54 52 56 57 56 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 73 62 65 53 49 31 26 27 7 -29 -72 -111 200 MB DIV 38 17 27 17 26 31 24 55 60 26 -10 -34 -9 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -7 -1 0 8 3 4 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 134 143 144 147 151 150 123 173 328 345 320 300 262 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.5 31.3 31.4 31.4 32.1 33.7 35.4 37.1 38.5 39.6 40.8 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.5 79.7 79.6 79.5 78.3 76.3 74.0 71.7 69.6 67.8 65.6 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 1 4 9 12 13 12 10 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -22. -29. -30. -30. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. 21. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -15. -15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012012 ALBERTO 05/20/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)