* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 44 52 62 68 73 73 75 76 76 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 44 52 44 42 46 46 48 49 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 51 44 41 48 54 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 8 8 5 3 5 5 10 17 27 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -6 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 186 207 231 277 333 268 320 247 241 246 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 155 153 151 148 148 148 147 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 148 148 146 143 138 137 135 132 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 63 63 60 62 58 58 57 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 68 64 59 59 49 63 48 49 36 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 29 44 51 64 50 38 38 55 42 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 2 2 5 5 0 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 454 357 265 188 131 84 -29 11 150 274 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.7 18.8 19.9 21.2 22.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.0 63.9 64.7 65.5 66.3 68.0 69.5 71.0 72.2 73.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 43 41 36 34 34 87 35 51 47 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 32. 38. 43. 43. 45. 46. 46. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/03/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)