* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 10/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 49 50 49 49 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 45 49 50 49 49 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 35 39 41 43 44 44 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 16 15 10 17 12 21 19 32 31 42 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -3 -3 -3 -6 0 0 -2 3 1 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 331 316 313 302 291 293 263 265 262 249 239 229 218 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 160 160 161 161 157 152 146 139 133 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 142 142 143 144 143 138 131 125 121 120 111 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 61 61 58 58 58 60 61 63 59 54 50 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 22 17 6 -24 -31 -22 -6 -1 -1 -15 -26 200 MB DIV -10 -14 -10 -9 -3 9 47 46 42 44 47 60 63 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 1 -1 6 10 5 7 0 -4 -45 LAND (KM) 375 334 299 289 289 374 511 649 779 840 768 806 971 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.9 21.8 22.0 22.2 23.1 24.4 25.8 27.2 28.4 30.0 31.9 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 67.5 68.1 68.6 69.1 70.1 71.2 71.9 72.0 71.7 70.6 68.3 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 7 8 12 18 22 HEAT CONTENT 78 87 97 102 98 66 66 44 41 34 24 15 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 24. 25. 24. 24. 23. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 10/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 10/06/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)