* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/27/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 44 50 52 53 53 56 56 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 39 44 50 52 53 53 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 38 43 50 55 60 65 68 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 1 3 3 2 4 4 14 11 22 23 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 5 1 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 175 234 93 123 173 173 237 181 224 231 236 251 267 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 121 122 125 128 130 133 136 140 145 149 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 112 112 114 116 118 122 125 129 133 136 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 51 50 45 39 38 36 35 31 30 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 50 42 43 37 42 35 5 -17 -39 -44 -54 -61 200 MB DIV -1 -1 1 6 14 9 2 4 7 29 10 2 -24 700-850 TADV 4 4 7 6 5 6 6 5 3 1 13 9 12 LAND (KM) 2037 2017 1996 1982 1972 1938 1893 1787 1617 1399 1191 1005 870 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.7 23.2 23.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 39.7 40.7 41.7 42.5 43.3 44.9 46.5 48.5 50.7 53.1 55.5 58.0 60.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 6 14 13 9 10 13 22 38 45 36 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 758 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 12. 15. 15. 15. 13. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 14. 20. 22. 23. 23. 26. 26. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/27/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/27/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)