* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972012 08/26/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 48 50 53 48 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 48 50 53 48 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 37 39 43 46 49 52 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 7 8 9 8 11 14 16 17 18 30 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -7 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 187 210 205 254 257 240 246 245 287 283 307 322 336 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 118 118 118 121 122 125 125 127 130 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 112 110 110 110 109 110 109 110 112 113 112 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 59 58 55 54 48 49 50 54 57 58 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 12 13 13 12 14 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 52 26 16 7 -24 -30 -60 -85 -121 -107 -77 200 MB DIV 9 11 3 6 0 9 22 2 -1 -4 -24 16 34 700-850 TADV -2 10 9 7 7 12 8 10 7 14 14 13 10 LAND (KM) 1889 2027 2139 2230 2262 2294 2330 2385 2314 2234 2063 1889 1777 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.8 22.4 23.6 24.8 26.0 27.5 29.0 30.6 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.2 37.4 38.4 39.4 41.1 42.5 43.7 44.8 45.6 46.0 46.1 45.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 12 10 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 0 6 12 22 26 23 20 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 23. 18. 16. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972012 INVEST 08/26/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972012 INVEST 08/26/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)