* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962012 08/22/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 46 50 51 55 55 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 41 46 50 51 55 55 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 41 43 44 45 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 12 10 7 7 13 16 10 15 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 1 2 6 8 10 10 11 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 93 120 154 206 247 219 243 274 261 203 257 6 2 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 138 137 134 131 131 132 136 143 149 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 140 138 133 130 129 130 134 141 145 146 144 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 67 65 61 60 58 59 56 60 65 61 56 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 13 12 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 61 64 61 58 51 49 33 20 14 8 -3 -1 -19 200 MB DIV 58 14 0 10 9 28 22 43 41 27 -6 -7 -30 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 0 -3 6 9 11 11 12 11 16 4 LAND (KM) 1712 1714 1730 1710 1628 1506 1385 1319 1306 1171 954 731 628 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 13 13 15 15 16 16 16 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 13 17 21 27 17 27 32 42 52 43 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -3. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 21. 25. 26. 30. 30. 34. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962012 INVEST 08/22/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962012 INVEST 08/22/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)