* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922013 08/14/13 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 38 46 55 63 75 77 73 69
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 31 28 34 42 54 56 52 48
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 25 26 30 35 41 48 54 58
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 7 6 5 9 7 8 5 13 12 18
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 -3 0 2 -5 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 332 320 274 244 271 287 252 294 226 257 222 227 243
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 159 157 153 154 153 155 157 160 159 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 142 147 149 152 150 143 141 139 138 140 143 142 134
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 9 10 9 10 11 12 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 73 73 67 70 67 58 49 47 46 45
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 12 14 21 20 16 11
850 MB ENV VOR 43 30 25 32 30 -10 -8 14 35 35 -12 -12 -11
200 MB DIV 63 40 41 40 48 29 37 34 50 2 18 20 3
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 2 4 -1 5 2 0 0 0 1 0
LAND (KM) 210 181 188 222 158 -54 -106 49 162 274 334 239 143
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.3 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.4
LONG(DEG W) 82.0 83.1 84.1 85.1 86.1 88.0 89.5 90.9 91.9 92.9 94.0 95.2 96.4
STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 6 6 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 28 34 41 47 55 76 24 28 24 30 37 37 37
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 13. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 12. 11. 6. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 35. 43. 55. 57. 53. 49.
** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 06 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922013 INVEST 08/14/13 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 08/14/2013 06 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)