* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922013 06/06/13 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 25 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 30 27 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 22 26 36 41 35 39 31 36 33 36 34 44 40
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -3 -6 -1 1 -1 0 0 3 -1 -4 1
SHEAR DIR 270 263 272 278 278 269 269 269 286 279 261 252 251
SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 122 123 123 123 126 128 131 131 130 129 129
ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 117 118 118 118 120 122 124 124 123 121 121
200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -54.9 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11
700-500 MB RH 50 54 53 50 53 52 52 52 48 45 50 55 57
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -15 -8 -10 -7 -8 -15 -6 -17 -4 -28 -19 -36 -43
200 MB DIV -6 -11 3 5 40 -1 31 0 3 -17 34 9 0
700-850 TADV 9 5 7 9 7 5 9 3 11 10 8 0 3
LAND (KM) 1151 1135 1131 1120 1115 1046 883 777 669 455 218 3 110
LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 46.7 47.7 48.7 49.7 50.7 52.8 55.1 57.3 59.5 61.5 63.7 65.8 67.8
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 11
HEAT CONTENT 11 20 21 11 8 11 7 25 21 20 15 0 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -19. -25. -30. -33. -36. -38.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -14. -18. -23. -25. -26. -28.
** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922013 INVEST 06/06/13 18 UTC **
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922013 INVEST 06/06/2013 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED