* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922012 05/13/12 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 39 37 35 33 30 28 28 26 26
V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 39 37 35 33 30 28 28 26 26
V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 40 41 42 42 41 40 40 42 46 51
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP
SHEAR (KT) 14 20 28 35 43 49 48 49 46 42 38 39 30
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 0 -3 0 0 1 3 5 6 7
SHEAR DIR 272 274 280 278 266 262 249 239 234 231 226 234 226
SST (C) 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.6 19.8 20.3 19.6 18.4 16.8 15.6 14.4 13.2 12.6
POT. INT. (KT) 75 74 74 75 76 81 81 77 73 71 72 72 71
ADJ. POT. INT. 68 67 67 68 68 74 75 72 68 67 69 69 69
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.6 -54.1 -55.2 -55.5 -55.7 -55.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -53.8 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 50 46 45 42 37 32 33 34 39 49 51 52 60
GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 110 91 91 83 93 90 114 135 120 97 86 92 142
200 MB DIV -14 -14 -17 -9 -11 -10 16 31 33 36 25 45 35
700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 -5 -9 -16 -4 -1 2 -11 -48 -55 -50
LAND (KM) 2017 2052 2088 2093 2097 1973 1578 1386 1198 1021 662 139 149
LAT (DEG N) 34.9 34.9 34.8 34.4 34.0 32.9 32.9 35.3 37.9 40.2 42.1 43.9 46.3
LONG(DEG W) 32.8 33.3 33.7 34.0 34.2 33.3 28.7 24.8 22.9 21.0 17.1 10.3 3.9
STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 5 12 19 17 15 15 22 26 25
HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=623)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. -3. -12. -19. -24. -27. -29. -31.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18.
PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 20. 23. 24. 22. 20.
THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -14. -14.
** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922012 INVEST 05/13/12 12 UTC **
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.1
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922012 INVEST 05/13/2012 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED