* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142013 11/19/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 58 62 64 66 65 63 62 61 58 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 58 62 64 66 65 63 62 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 53 55 57 61 61 58 56 56 58 58 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 13 8 20 23 32 17 5 10 9 9 18 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 1 10 4 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 212 238 192 195 195 182 178 185 264 207 187 224 225 SST (C) 25.3 24.8 24.3 23.6 23.0 21.3 17.9 15.3 14.3 10.6 8.8 7.8 8.8 POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 101 98 95 89 79 73 70 68 66 60 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 91 90 89 87 82 74 69 67 66 65 59 61 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.5 -58.1 -58.3 -58.4 -58.3 -58.5 -58.0 -57.3 -57.2 -57.9 -58.5 -57.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 44 51 50 44 34 30 40 51 64 64 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 31 29 28 26 27 26 25 24 21 18 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 156 135 127 127 120 125 162 135 55 40 79 114 91 200 MB DIV 60 46 53 65 71 64 38 18 29 54 77 65 62 700-850 TADV 7 1 -6 -7 -6 -19 -17 5 14 41 26 61 18 LAND (KM) 1708 1624 1543 1430 1307 1105 1141 1367 1563 1467 1424 1441 1483 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 31.7 32.6 33.9 35.1 38.2 41.8 44.8 47.7 51.4 55.9 58.3 57.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 54.2 53.7 52.1 50.5 46.1 40.5 35.5 31.9 31.6 34.3 34.7 32.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 14 18 21 26 26 21 18 21 18 4 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 15. 13. 12. 11. 8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142013 MELISSA 11/19/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED