* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962013 09/01/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 28 30 31 32 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 28 30 31 32 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 28 27 25 23 23 25 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 10 14 25 37 28 21 15 20 24 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 15 14 6 7 6 -2 2 -5 0 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 81 76 275 279 284 255 245 242 251 279 286 270 260 SST (C) 27.8 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 126 121 117 113 111 112 114 119 117 113 110 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 122 117 111 106 105 103 103 100 96 96 95 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -54.6 -55.4 -55.9 -55.7 -55.7 -55.2 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 54 52 46 43 45 52 54 50 45 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 43 39 26 11 -8 -54 -92 -80 -71 -77 -75 -33 200 MB DIV 2 7 0 13 10 1 -20 12 19 10 -8 -21 -3 700-850 TADV 3 6 12 24 22 47 53 48 31 12 -10 -31 -43 LAND (KM) 333 582 831 1030 1233 1602 1904 2161 2269 2191 2047 1878 1799 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.2 18.1 19.1 20.0 22.4 25.0 27.7 30.0 31.5 31.6 30.3 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 20.2 22.4 24.5 26.7 28.8 32.5 35.3 37.4 38.1 36.9 34.8 33.5 33.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 22 23 22 22 19 18 14 10 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 INVEST 09/01/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 INVEST 09/01/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)