* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962013 08/31/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 26 26 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 28 28 26 26 24 23 23 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 26 24 24 24 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 12 9 9 13 24 31 24 22 20 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 7 12 14 10 6 1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 53 59 53 25 9 296 267 250 265 268 271 260 252 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.6 26.2 25.4 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.8 25.6 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 132 124 119 112 108 110 110 110 109 106 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 133 124 119 108 102 101 98 95 94 94 96 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.7 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -55.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 58 54 50 45 40 42 48 47 40 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 48 51 43 44 19 -12 -66 -122 -135 -156 -135 -81 200 MB DIV 9 -3 4 2 4 15 9 -14 1 3 4 -28 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 12 18 33 43 55 50 11 -11 -61 -39 LAND (KM) 48 235 426 657 888 1238 1542 1780 1953 2007 1867 1671 1549 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.6 18.3 20.4 22.8 25.4 27.8 29.6 29.9 28.5 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 17.5 19.2 20.9 23.0 25.0 28.9 31.9 34.0 35.2 35.1 33.4 31.9 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 19 21 21 19 17 14 11 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 INVEST 08/31/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 INVEST 08/31/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED