* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962013 08/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 39 42 45 45 43 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 34 36 40 44 46 46 44 43 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 30 32 33 36 40 44 48 48 46 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 23 25 21 17 5 7 20 29 25 20 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 3 5 4 10 5 2 -3 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 75 58 52 52 44 16 279 242 228 228 234 202 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 141 142 140 127 122 116 113 116 118 123 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 135 138 141 140 127 121 113 109 110 108 109 108 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -54.1 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 66 63 61 56 52 49 45 45 50 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 8 8 7 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 68 63 70 67 62 43 24 -16 -50 -87 -83 200 MB DIV 42 28 24 41 22 2 14 9 12 3 6 -4 11 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -7 -3 -4 13 21 32 39 40 35 13 LAND (KM) -86 5 66 162 302 661 1094 1466 1794 2096 2386 2273 2056 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.1 16.2 17.7 19.1 21.1 23.5 26.0 28.2 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 16.0 16.9 17.7 19.0 20.3 23.5 27.3 30.9 34.3 37.3 40.0 42.1 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 14 15 18 19 19 19 18 16 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 14 5 1 2 4 0 0 0 4 9 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 14. 17. 20. 20. 18. 17. 18. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 INVEST 08/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 INVEST 08/30/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)