* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL962013 07/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 34 35 31 28 23 21 21 25 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 28 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 26 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 8 14 20 14 20 14 14 9 3 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 4 3 3 -3 0 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 3 34 27 60 66 92 94 69 75 56 78 220 243 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 25.0 23.4 20.5 17.1 16.6 17.9 20.2 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 127 126 124 107 96 81 71 69 73 81 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 110 110 108 95 85 73 65 64 67 73 74 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -54.7 -54.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 9 5 11 3 12 4 13 6 13 700-500 MB RH 72 68 66 63 62 56 52 51 49 52 48 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -19 -20 -3 -11 -52 -90 -127 -132 -151 -140 -87 -56 200 MB DIV 15 5 17 5 -31 -13 -15 -24 -2 -27 14 -14 41 700-850 TADV 0 -14 -16 -7 -3 0 17 -10 8 -7 14 -22 9 LAND (KM) 432 429 345 208 77 -271 -631 -933 -999 -999 -999 -759 -414 LAT (DEG N) 29.0 30.0 30.9 31.9 32.9 35.0 37.2 39.1 40.7 41.9 42.8 42.7 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.2 76.5 76.8 77.7 78.6 81.5 84.5 87.0 88.3 88.3 86.4 82.9 78.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 15 16 15 11 7 6 10 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 18 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 13 CX,CY: 1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -8. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 6. 3. -2. -4. -4. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 CHANTAL 07/13/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 CHANTAL 07/13/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)