* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL962013 07/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 37 39 38 34 33 31 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 31 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 4 8 16 19 11 12 2 6 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -2 -5 0 4 5 4 2 3 2 6 SHEAR DIR 347 342 2 51 81 95 119 89 94 355 308 311 295 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.0 24.2 21.0 15.9 13.9 15.7 17.7 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 127 126 124 116 102 84 70 67 70 75 80 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 110 111 110 109 103 91 76 66 63 66 70 73 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 -54.4 -53.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 6 9 4 8 4 10 5 12 700-500 MB RH 70 70 66 64 60 57 52 50 47 52 49 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -12 -17 -18 0 -24 -62 -125 -112 -146 -119 -94 -65 200 MB DIV 54 30 -5 7 10 -15 -17 -16 -31 4 -21 1 -10 700-850 TADV 5 -1 -7 -10 -4 -7 21 -6 16 8 11 1 34 LAND (KM) 351 364 367 326 197 -124 -513 -859 -999 -999 -999 -863 -469 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.6 31.6 33.7 36.1 38.4 40.6 42.5 43.9 43.9 42.7 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 76.8 77.0 77.6 78.2 80.7 84.0 87.1 89.3 89.6 87.6 83.5 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 12 13 16 18 15 12 9 11 16 18 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 15 17 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 10. 8. 6. 5. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962013 CHANTAL 07/12/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962013 CHANTAL 07/12/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)