* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092013 09/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 43 49 65 80 91 98 100 96 87 79 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 43 49 65 80 91 98 100 96 87 79 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 54 68 82 86 81 74 67 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 9 7 9 4 4 10 13 15 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 -2 0 6 1 13 SHEAR DIR 49 48 55 50 31 51 83 189 215 209 222 245 238 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.1 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 143 141 138 134 125 117 111 109 109 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 140 142 138 132 127 118 109 101 99 97 96 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 82 81 79 76 75 72 64 50 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 19 20 24 27 30 33 34 33 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 78 84 100 120 133 139 134 125 142 151 148 111 86 200 MB DIV 19 39 56 83 81 110 107 85 108 124 70 -2 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 14 16 11 8 0 LAND (KM) 461 552 647 767 891 1078 1181 1276 1397 1438 1513 1584 1671 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.9 16.5 18.5 20.2 21.6 22.9 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 21.4 22.4 23.3 24.5 25.7 27.5 28.5 29.3 30.1 30.8 31.6 32.3 33.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 12 10 7 7 10 10 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 13 17 14 10 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 14. 9. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 35. 50. 61. 68. 70. 66. 57. 49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092013 NINE 09/09/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092013 NINE 09/09/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED