* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/04/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 39 46 52 58 61 65 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 39 46 36 40 44 48 49 51 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 42 34 38 43 48 52 56 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 2 5 6 4 9 10 15 12 17 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 0 4 -1 1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 210 234 213 191 250 284 257 252 257 264 261 267 266 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 151 150 149 150 153 154 156 155 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 147 144 142 139 139 141 140 140 138 139 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 61 59 61 60 61 59 60 58 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 64 57 54 52 48 64 58 56 48 49 40 33 12 200 MB DIV 39 47 47 32 31 43 34 41 21 39 4 -1 -18 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 5 1 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 270 194 133 123 77 3 -42 53 59 44 44 15 -11 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.9 66.9 67.8 68.7 70.4 71.9 73.3 74.4 75.4 76.1 76.8 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 32 32 33 17 92 21 43 41 44 36 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 22. 28. 31. 35. 36. 39. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972013 INVEST 09/04/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972013 INVEST 09/04/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED