* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHANTAL AL032013 07/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 34 35 37 41 48 53 58 63 65 62 V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 34 35 31 37 33 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 34 33 32 28 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 30 29 37 30 19 17 2 6 12 13 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -5 -2 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 283 284 275 279 285 277 335 335 238 266 343 343 357 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.2 27.1 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 148 151 155 153 150 139 125 118 114 112 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 143 149 151 152 142 135 123 109 102 97 93 92 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -53.8 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 7 9 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 60 59 64 61 66 67 57 52 59 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 4 -4 -12 -25 -35 -57 -5 -13 -7 -44 -29 -17 200 MB DIV 4 32 51 46 40 39 42 38 17 -20 -9 8 -15 700-850 TADV 5 5 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 4 3 1 -15 -7 LAND (KM) 111 75 21 77 45 -52 90 -34 -44 -27 -56 -139 -178 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.1 22.3 24.5 26.3 28.0 29.7 31.5 32.2 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 73.0 74.7 76.4 78.0 80.0 80.2 80.5 81.0 81.5 81.9 82.5 83.0 STM SPEED (KT) 23 18 18 18 16 12 10 9 9 9 7 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 39 49 54 100 22 18 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 28 CX,CY: -26/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 875 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. 1. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032013 CHANTAL 07/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)