* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 08/01/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 51 53 52 49 45 45 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 48 51 53 52 49 45 45 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 40 46 51 54 54 52 48 44 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 6 7 8 9 12 21 26 28 41 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 6 8 5 4 0 5 2 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 321 348 347 337 335 297 286 277 278 258 284 277 286 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 139 139 137 138 140 140 141 144 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 129 128 139 139 137 138 141 141 142 143 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 67 65 62 63 65 63 63 67 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 13 1 1 4 7 13 16 19 10 8 -14 1 5 200 MB DIV 15 8 22 25 5 11 24 38 48 58 24 46 32 700-850 TADV -14 -13 -9 -6 -2 5 7 9 11 17 13 10 -6 LAND (KM) 883 893 904 852 799 746 723 660 483 511 256 2 -39 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 12.1 13.1 14.1 15.4 16.7 17.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 46.6 46.2 47.3 48.4 50.5 52.8 55.4 58.1 61.1 63.9 66.9 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 4 3 11 11 11 12 14 15 15 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 31 28 20 18 29 29 53 49 63 57 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 21. 23. 22. 19. 15. 15. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 08/01/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 08/01/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)