* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 08/01/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 43 50 56 64 71 75 77 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 43 50 56 64 71 75 77 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 55 66 78 85 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 8 10 8 10 7 5 4 8 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 9 4 2 -1 1 0 1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 355 348 360 326 325 313 289 340 13 10 282 339 268 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.5 27.9 27.7 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 143 143 143 143 142 132 137 134 123 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 149 149 149 149 150 147 135 140 134 119 121 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 8 10 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 66 67 61 64 62 64 70 68 69 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 10 12 12 11 12 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 1 4 7 12 12 21 34 38 47 49 78 80 96 200 MB DIV 21 25 15 24 22 31 66 19 18 23 32 51 24 700-850 TADV -13 -10 -13 -15 -12 -7 -6 -6 -1 3 3 1 2 LAND (KM) 1013 913 832 754 694 628 487 163 177 224 104 78 238 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 16 15 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 28 18 20 36 33 52 32 27 54 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 18. 25. 31. 39. 46. 50. 52. 53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 08/01/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 08/01/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)