* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 07/31/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 30 40 47 56 60 65 66 65 66 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 30 40 47 56 60 65 66 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 32 38 42 45 47 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 5 2 0 3 7 7 6 12 13 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 7 8 12 12 16 8 10 6 8 4 1 SHEAR DIR 359 341 354 359 15 34 140 279 246 280 202 234 191 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 136 134 134 133 135 134 135 136 139 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 138 136 135 134 135 134 134 136 139 140 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 64 62 66 64 64 60 61 59 58 54 53 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 14 16 17 17 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 31 17 13 9 17 21 20 24 34 36 45 40 44 200 MB DIV 24 13 6 11 29 38 48 42 47 28 40 3 20 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -10 -9 -11 -6 -7 -1 1 4 -2 5 7 LAND (KM) 1364 1363 1373 1357 1281 1120 992 872 796 747 682 453 361 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.3 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.6 37.7 38.8 40.0 41.2 43.5 45.8 48.1 50.3 52.7 55.1 57.7 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 11 17 20 25 39 29 23 39 49 66 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 20. 27. 36. 40. 45. 46. 45. 46. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 07/31/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 07/31/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)