* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992012 07/30/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 37 42 48 53 56 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 33 37 42 48 53 56 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 25 27 30 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 7 4 3 8 2 4 1 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 9 10 11 9 12 19 12 13 6 8 4 SHEAR DIR 269 276 283 285 293 234 263 333 327 231 276 216 220 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 128 126 125 130 136 136 136 137 140 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 129 126 126 131 137 136 137 138 140 144 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 58 61 62 59 58 57 54 56 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 11 12 11 12 14 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 47 45 38 36 34 28 31 29 37 41 39 38 31 200 MB DIV -7 -5 3 25 21 46 40 51 25 18 30 62 80 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -9 -10 -10 -9 -8 -3 -11 -6 -1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1536 1503 1482 1470 1465 1289 1103 956 809 721 696 541 319 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.9 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.5 36.6 37.8 39.0 41.6 44.1 46.6 49.0 51.5 53.9 56.3 58.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 12 12 17 24 39 44 28 35 33 42 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 22. 28. 33. 36. 39. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012 INVEST 07/30/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012 INVEST 07/30/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)