* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/12/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 37 43 49 53 49 47 50 50 49 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 37 43 49 53 49 47 50 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 36 35 35 35 36 36 36 35 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 21 21 17 15 20 27 24 29 29 23 35 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 9 4 0 -1 -5 2 5 6 11 5 3 SHEAR DIR 247 245 238 241 247 237 256 248 255 250 215 213 218 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.0 26.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 159 157 158 158 160 161 157 141 124 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 159 155 154 151 148 146 147 147 146 133 117 106 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 3 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 70 66 65 64 66 64 65 69 64 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 13 14 15 19 22 24 22 22 26 27 31 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 54 42 40 74 81 98 86 88 86 104 226 200 MB DIV 53 72 63 75 87 99 59 33 34 68 147 134 116 700-850 TADV 11 14 -1 3 7 6 10 18 17 40 58 66 33 LAND (KM) 331 427 407 295 187 100 237 398 449 714 1062 1004 648 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 15 22 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 59 66 74 73 71 76 81 67 61 47 27 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 8. 7. 11. 10. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 18. 14. 12. 15. 15. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/12/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/12/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)