* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/12/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 35 45 50 52 51 50 55 51 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 35 45 50 52 51 50 55 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 27 28 30 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 14 18 18 15 18 16 23 25 29 35 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 3 9 10 5 0 -2 0 5 7 2 9 -6 SHEAR DIR 232 232 229 217 221 237 251 256 262 250 245 218 221 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 27.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 158 157 156 158 160 160 159 151 139 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 161 155 153 150 147 147 146 145 143 138 129 113 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 6 700-500 MB RH 77 73 71 72 69 67 64 61 60 60 61 51 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 17 22 22 24 24 22 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 46 41 26 44 95 94 85 87 106 147 71 200 MB DIV 44 71 91 89 59 113 92 70 30 26 66 103 31 700-850 TADV 10 13 14 0 7 12 8 18 22 37 22 21 1 LAND (KM) 317 406 503 404 307 149 196 355 469 609 827 1023 986 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 14 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 57 73 79 81 94 78 55 47 32 20 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 9. 11. 10. 8. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 15. 20. 22. 21. 20. 25. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/12/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/12/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)