* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/12/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 35 42 49 54 53 54 50 49 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 35 42 49 54 53 54 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 27 27 28 30 33 34 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 20 14 19 20 17 16 15 18 27 34 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 5 5 6 -1 0 -2 1 12 4 3 8 SHEAR DIR 238 240 250 246 242 251 234 251 252 251 251 244 221 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 159 159 156 156 156 158 160 159 150 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 160 159 158 154 149 146 144 144 145 144 136 124 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 78 73 74 74 72 69 68 64 63 63 67 66 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 14 17 19 21 20 22 19 23 850 MB ENV VOR 45 37 38 39 36 19 57 74 86 75 83 67 99 200 MB DIV 62 47 75 80 63 82 105 60 35 16 38 75 90 700-850 TADV 6 12 11 12 7 4 0 6 8 21 22 20 3 LAND (KM) 316 305 348 445 487 306 174 201 322 471 602 852 969 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 11 12 10 9 8 8 8 9 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 45 53 55 50 60 77 79 95 81 57 51 30 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 9. 6. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 23. 24. 20. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/12/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/12/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)