* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/11/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 30 37 41 48 52 51 53 53 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 30 37 41 48 52 51 53 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 24 24 25 27 29 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 23 19 19 18 15 16 11 11 17 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 3 1 0 0 5 1 5 4 SHEAR DIR 245 238 248 241 242 227 243 256 268 260 264 260 270 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 160 157 154 153 153 157 156 157 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 161 160 159 156 149 141 139 139 143 143 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 73 74 73 72 67 66 68 65 70 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 12 13 17 18 21 24 20 22 23 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 39 45 48 46 66 88 101 111 107 121 105 200 MB DIV 67 52 58 78 92 64 92 73 49 31 11 50 77 700-850 TADV 4 6 9 5 9 6 5 2 6 16 10 14 25 LAND (KM) 303 265 277 344 431 400 268 208 152 128 184 363 601 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.7 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.5 19.8 21.6 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.4 60.3 61.1 61.9 63.0 63.7 64.1 64.4 64.5 64.9 64.9 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 10 9 7 4 3 3 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 47 55 63 65 70 78 81 80 81 68 93 83 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 6. 9. 11. 7. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 7. 11. 18. 22. 21. 23. 23. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/11/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/11/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)