* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 32 36 42 47 46 49 47 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 32 36 42 47 46 49 47 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 17 22 21 21 21 21 26 28 30 39 42 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 9 11 7 7 -1 0 0 4 2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 248 237 237 233 250 239 244 230 251 245 252 248 248 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 161 161 161 159 157 158 158 160 160 159 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 166 163 162 161 156 150 148 146 148 146 142 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 78 75 73 72 70 68 64 61 58 57 58 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 14 16 19 22 20 22 21 22 850 MB ENV VOR 46 54 52 48 55 57 58 96 104 111 94 107 104 200 MB DIV 68 75 52 52 73 49 82 75 45 15 15 24 35 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 2 10 4 5 1 5 4 14 6 9 LAND (KM) 338 248 203 241 328 415 193 23 133 267 373 513 660 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 61 64 64 78 82 90 82 84 71 50 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 17. 21. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 8. 10. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 6. 12. 17. 16. 19. 17. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/11/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)