* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 34 37 39 43 44 48 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 34 34 37 39 43 44 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 27 26 25 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 22 24 16 22 18 19 25 25 24 25 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 5 9 8 3 0 3 0 1 5 0 SHEAR DIR 260 263 263 269 246 255 242 237 230 244 250 256 259 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 165 165 163 159 159 158 156 157 158 159 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 172 171 166 159 155 150 146 147 146 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 74 73 73 69 71 68 65 63 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 11 13 14 12 15 16 20 18 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 36 49 50 40 43 42 63 76 73 70 67 200 MB DIV 79 50 51 66 73 69 34 47 94 58 29 30 18 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 7 12 19 8 7 4 7 7 13 10 LAND (KM) 425 466 445 445 363 336 478 403 280 195 284 411 489 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 8 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 40 39 38 65 77 81 78 84 85 68 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 2. 4. 6. 9. 6. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 4. 7. 9. 13. 14. 18. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.2/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/11/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED