* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 39 40 43 47 52 55 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 39 40 43 47 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 33 33 31 28 26 26 27 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 22 26 27 26 26 22 20 21 17 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 5 5 6 6 6 -1 0 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 247 253 251 255 263 245 253 246 249 241 253 253 281 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 164 164 164 160 160 159 157 156 156 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 169 168 167 160 158 154 148 145 143 139 137 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 73 76 74 74 73 73 72 69 69 67 66 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 16 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 58 53 47 42 37 39 38 42 51 65 79 80 76 200 MB DIV 83 76 79 55 49 48 50 52 63 69 40 33 22 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 3 0 1 7 0 4 0 4 4 9 LAND (KM) 436 463 487 452 439 298 296 417 430 307 223 139 85 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.8 11.3 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.4 16.2 16.5 17.0 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.0 54.1 55.1 56.1 57.0 58.8 60.4 61.7 62.9 63.7 64.5 65.1 65.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 40 39 39 44 71 76 83 85 86 87 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 10. 17. 21. 26. 29. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 13. 17. 22. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/10/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)