* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982012 10/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 30 31 29 28 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 30 31 29 28 32 35 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 14 17 23 27 36 33 32 34 27 27 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 5 5 1 2 4 6 7 7 3 0 5 SHEAR DIR 257 252 273 267 279 256 251 248 246 251 250 250 254 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 171 167 167 167 167 163 161 159 156 155 157 156 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 174 173 172 172 172 167 163 158 152 148 147 144 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 71 75 72 74 73 74 74 75 71 67 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 8 9 11 13 15 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 58 58 53 41 33 35 35 33 39 61 67 200 MB DIV 47 64 88 104 84 84 74 72 69 47 49 47 28 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -6 -7 -6 -1 0 2 10 11 13 1 4 LAND (KM) 838 754 681 627 591 606 642 527 445 466 522 495 424 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.5 46.9 48.2 49.4 50.6 52.7 54.8 56.7 58.4 59.7 60.9 61.7 62.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 45 37 39 45 49 48 54 71 81 76 78 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 854 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 2. 9. 17. 22. 28. 32. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -9. -13. -19. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 7. 10. 12. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982012 INVEST 10/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.2/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982012 INVEST 10/09/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED